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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-11-09T07:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-09T07:24Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42546/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Halo CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-11-09T07:24Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 and in the NE by STEREO A COR2 in later frames. The source of this event is an X1.7 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27E03) which peaked at 2025-11-09T07:35Z seen in GOES SUVI 131. Dimming and field line movement associated with this flare seen in GOES SUVI 171, 193 and 284 appears to have a Northwestern trajectory, suggesting the possibility of deflection. This CME has appears to have a very asymmetric morphology from the perspective of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. There does not appear to be a shock feature associated with this event.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-11T22:11Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-11T16:53Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/42597/1
Model Inputs:
2025-11-09T07:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=2.0, Lat.=18.0, Speed=734.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2025-11-09T12:12Z
2025-11-10T09:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=19.0, Lat.=8.0, Speed=1298.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2025-11-10T11:42Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-11-11T16:53Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =23.8 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.5
(kp)90=6
(kp)180=8

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-09T23:51Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-11T06:54Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-11T02:50Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-11T21:06Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 29.27 hour(s)
Difference: 5.30 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2025-11-10T16:55Z

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